Monte Carlo Shortfall Analysis

The Shortfall Analysis can be found on the Plan Output.  It is designed to help you see what the unsuccessful outcomes in a plan simulation look like. There is a big difference between a retirement plan failing at 95 and 75. The Shortfall Analysis is designed to help quantify this. To calculate the Median Age at Shortfall and Median Shortfall Amount, we examine all of the simulations in a plan that were unsuccessful. For example, if a plan had a 90% probability of success, there are still approximately 100 simulations where all of the goals were not met (out of 1000 run). The Median Age at Shortfall is the median age of all unsuccessful plans.  In the unsuccessful plans, it is the year where the plan was first unable to meet a goal. The Median Shortfall Amount is the median ending portfolio value, discounted at X% per year, of the simulations that were not able to meet all of the goals in a plan.

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